NEVADA, Mo. — A year ago, dozens of protesters gathered outside the district office of Representative Ike Skelton, a Democrat who has represented a wide stretch of western Missouri since 1976. The anger they directed at health care legislation — and by extension most Congressional Democrats — left the party in a state of near panic.
It may, in retrospect, have been the best thing that could have happened to Mr. Skelton and his colleagues.
In the arsenal of advantages that Republicans hold as they seek to win control of Congress this year, one thing is missing: the element of surprise. Unlike 1994, when Republicans shocked Democrats by capturing dozens of seats held by complacent incumbents, there will be no sneak attacks this year. Democrats have sensed trouble for more than a year, with the unrest from town-hall-style meetings last August providing indisputable evidence for any disbelievers.
The result has been to goad many Democrats into better preparation: more fund-raising, earlier advertising, lots of time on the campaign trail.
“People have been very, very kind through the years,” said Mr. Skelton, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, who is running for an 18th term. “But there is some unrest this time. I take it very seriously.”
In the last two elections, Democrats picked up 55 seats in the House, earning a majority that party leaders know will now narrow. The question is not whether Republicans will win seats in November, but rather how many. Democrats believe that their fortunes would be far worse if the voter discontent had stayed at bay until this August.
In 1994, when Republicans swept control of Congress, it was not until a few weeks before the election — and in some cases on Election Day itself — that some veteran Democrats knew they were truly at risk.
The House speaker, Thomas J. Foley, and Dan Glickman, a congressman from Kansas who led the Intelligence Committee, were among the Democrats who lost their seats because they did not detect the political trouble ahead. At Labor Day that year, Mr. Glickman said, his polling showed that he held a 30-point lead. A month later, he was in a steep decline.
“We did not anticipate the level of discontent out there until October,” Mr. Glickman recalled in an interview. “I was in parades all over my district, and I would see people campaigning for my opponent. I would say to my wife, ‘Who are these people?’ ”
This year, Democrats are all too aware of their detractors.
“Some people were taken aback by the anger,” said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, who is hardly among the most vulnerable Democrats but said he was campaigning harder than any other election since 1982. “We’re professional people who are used to affection. It’s almost disorienting.”
Many Democrats have raised more money so far this year than in the entire previous election cycle. They formed their campaign teams several months ahead of schedule and began running television advertisements earlier than ever. Realizing they could do little to improve the political climate, they are trying to fortify themselves with sharper tactics.
Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, who has led recruitment efforts for Republicans, said that Democrats might be more prepared than they were in 1994, but that they had done nothing to improve their standing with voters who are frustrated with the party’s agenda.
“The surprise factor may not be there,” he said, “but what do you do if you’re in trouble? You change your behavior. They have not. Their message doesn’t resonate with people.”
The discontent of last August, which became the soundtrack of talk radio and cable television, may also have helped Democrats in another way. An unusually large number of Republicans ran for office this year, including many aligned with the Tea Party movement, spreading the opposition among several candidates rather than consolidating it against specific Democratic rivals.
Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, began meeting with some of his party’s most established lawmakers in early 2009 to see if they were running assertive, modern campaigns and raising enough money to fuel them. He said some members were slow to realize the extent of the political unrest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/us/politics/15town.html?hp
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